My back of envelope valuation...
Bow currently have 3P reserves of 174 PJ and are targeting 3P of reserves of 750 PJ by end of 2009 (source: BOW ASX announcment 12 May 2009.
If this is valued using similar metrics to other deals (Petronas/Santos etc) at a range of $0.50/GJ to $1.00 per GJ then say pick the mid point of $0.75/GJ puts the value of 3P reserves at $563m.
Even at BOW's current 3P of 174PJ then @ $0.75/GJ the value is $130m.
BOW's current market cap is around $205m.
That means to me that very little upside has been priced in and the current share price reflects their current 3P and some oil.
With acerage in the Surat and Bowen basins, smack bang in the middle of the CSG action I'm waiting (with anticipation) for the next reserve upgrade which should put another rocket under this one!!
Looks undervalued and their aggresive certifiction programme is definetly ballsy. One last thing that keeps me in this (have been in since $0.25) is the management. Proven experience through Arrow goes along way - they'll know who to talk to!
My back of envelope valuation...Bow currently have 3P reserves...
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