Firstly, just look at this story again (remember supposedly a chronic shortage is the only thing standing between us and housing price crash armageddon). Prosper Australia suggests Melbourne has an oversupply of near 80,000 dwellings (I think they determine that from vacant properties with no to very low water usage - makes sense - we all need to shower and flush even if all we drink is coke). Residex suggests 25,000. But wait...I am not even questioning the magical 25,000 plucked out of a hat. I mean for heaven sakes, Melbourne has an oversupply ?? This is a startling admission of BETRAYAL & DECEIPT by the property spruikes.
To suggest there is a balanced demand-supply equation is blasphemy enough. Up until this year, all we have heard of is CHRONIC SHORTAGE that is structural. How dare Residex tells us there is an OVERSUPPLY ?? (as we have been told for years we are building too few houses to meet the insatiable demand).
It gets better !
Residex talks about a 100 year property collapse (but he is not saying precisely what causes it). Is he having a bob each way ? Does he even know what will happen (doubt it) ? There is no mention of bank funding crisis, 40% clearance, FHB still nursing their wounds, 3 times as many properties on the market as a year ago, risk of recession...
Is this 100 year event more likely today than back in July when Edwards first got it off his chest ?? Think so !
....."Residex forecaster John Edwards envisages there are the makings of a perfect storm that could undermine the national property market.
The Melbourne market is Australia’s most at-risk market at the moment, Edwards says, and poor management of the economy by the federal government could easily bring about a “1 in a 100-year” national property collapse.
“Overall I view the Melbourne market as our most at-risk market at this time,” he warns"......
