RSG

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Resolute to sell Ravenswood, page-52

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eshmun

12,259 Posts.

3833

08/01/19

18:42

Post #: 37060479
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Originally posted by eshmun ↑

The article refers to cashed up local gold miners (see quote below)

"The scale of the forecast output at Ravenswood, together with its comparatively long life, means it is likely to appeal to a host of cashed-up local gold miners hunting for assets that will grow their output and extend their forecast operating lives."

but despite the rampant valuations of some of these companies the cash they hold is relatively modest.

RMS is not a contender without going into significant debt IMO.

What are the cash positions of the other locals?

At Sept 2018

NST $277 million No debt

SBM $343 million No debt

RRL $209 million No debt

EVN $78 million Net debt

RSG are not in the habit of publishing NPVs with their feasibilty studies but the article is claiming an NPV of $500 million. I don't know if this figure is before or after tax or where it comes from.

Even at half the quoted NPV none of the above companies are currently in much of a position to be offering cash without straining their balance sheets.

That's the problem with some of these bloated companies, they are supposed to be big cash generators but they can't even afford to buy modest projects with the cash on their balance sheets.

NST raised cash to acquire Pogo. I suppose that is an option for some but does Ravenswood have the knock out (sex appeal) metrics to allow the banksters to extract more of "other people's money" to fund the purchase price, I doubt it very much. The Pogo and South Kalgoorlie acquistions where knock out blows if you measure them as exercises in rehypothigating value through the market. Pogo, an asset bought in an arms length cash transaction is immediately rehypothicated by the market at about 3 times its purchase value......wow. Then NST offer about one sixth of the implied market value for one of its own assets to its JV partner to buy the remaining 49%, stating it to be fair value.........wow. Most of these mid-tier Australian gold companies have bubble valuations for the assets they own. None seem to have Tier-One gold mines as measured by Barrick Gold's definition, but some don't mind carrying Tier-One valuations.

I think the most likely contenders are SBM as their mine life visibility is only 5 years at Gwalia until the GME project is proved feasible. Then possibly RRL as Ravenswood sort of suits their skill set and style.

Honestly though, I think the Australian gold sector is too weak to be splashing hundreds of millions in cash around for acquistions, so we either accept a very low ball offer or the we get gouged by the banksters in a spin off.

I prefer the fire sale option.

Now that the cat is out of the bag the most important thing is to get on with it and get this project off the books.

Also, it's a pretty odd way to disclose the company's intentions to the market in an article with an attempted postive spin, but it probably did less harm than making a direct announcement to disallowed.

Company needs to deliver on Syama in the next 6 months as promised.

JW's credibility now hinges on his words about the progress of Syama. You either beilive him or you don't. Esh

Expand

Sorry. Forgot SAR on that list.

A$122 million (cash No debt) with an available unused credit faculty of A$150 million.

SAR already have $140 million earmarked for development and exploration in FY 2019 so really only about A$132 million available before FY2019 FCF.

To big for SLR to chew IMO. They need to bed down and prove Deflector is more than talk.Esh

RSG Price at posting: $1.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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