Great news today on FME and with further upgrades at FMW due shortly, I decided to do some back of the envelope calculations on various U308 companies.
I don't profess to be an expert, just an investor who is heavily skewered towards this end of the market and has been into AGS since Jan 06.
As of this week there are 341,172,304 issued shares plus 8,625,000 options with a strike of under $ 1.60, totalling 349,797,309 shares giving AGS a market cap of approx. $245m. They have approx. $ 43.6m cash on hand and the top 20 shareholders control 59%.
Taking into account today's announcement, we have 28,000 tonnes for 61mlbs of U308. Mining at 3mlbs pa gives us a mine life at this stage of around 10 years.
By my reckoning this leaves us with a valuation of under $ 4 per pound of U308 (market cap/U308). By way of comparison, the same logic gives a valuation for BMN of under $ 2pp and EXT a value of around $ 11pp.
What I am trying to work out is the relative value of AGS compared to its peers and, more importantly, its potential takeover value. By my reckoning it will be only a matter of time before its true value is recognised.
Comments?
AGS Price at posting:
69.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
