To ALL SYA Investor's - Some great post last week. Keep up the great work.....
Was away on Business for 5 days last week ahead of a well earned and much anticipated fortnight of FUN and festivities down the Beach.
Speaking of much ' ANTICIPATED ' and with respect to some inferences here that some posters may not have been aware or fully appreciate the enormity of the potential with respect to SYA and it's pitch for the Lithium Interests of NAL.
I would at least like to rebut that comment with a reply that says that in so far as much of what has been stated in these latest News releases and Company Announcements / ' Statements ' ....was in fact well and truly covered by many previous posts made on these forums. So I would argue strongly that some of us DID in fact see this coming and indeed the way and manner the SP would play itself out even as far back as September / October 2019 and of course prior. This was the time of the CR at .0086 cents , and shortly after at the time of the intention to BID for the NAL assets when the SP was still wavering around the .009 - .01 cent levels.
Even the comment's re: the tonnages and QUALITY being able to be achieved from the Combination of Authier / Tansim - Lac Simard / NAL is not something I would suggest has not been widely known or understood. Nor are the facts in regards the Quebec Governments widely held intentions for a Lithium ' HUB ' , it's benefit's or the role in which SYA has been posturing itself for with it's timely and opportunistic bolt on acquisitions. And much of the financial side of matters as well as industry comparison's, and Share Price movements have also been discussed in depth on these SYA forums. So as far as I am concerned , those investor's including myself who have been well across these issue are the ones who have enjoyed the recent ' expected ' gains from the sub 1 cents levels to where we are now , and where we are about to go soon.
And sure we can talk and make a case about Fibonacci retracement's till the Cow's come home , and that's all well and good as that is probably what's been done by design as previously explained in order to ' re-capitalize ' the company's SP off it's extreme lows. So 1 cent plus 1.5 cent ( Obsidian ) is surely 2.5 cents ( 110 million shares in security of $2.75 million in Cash From Notes ) ......and so on and so forth....
However if we look at the average industry gains off the lows of some 45% which has been witnessed across the entire Australian Lithium landscape , we begin to realize that it has only just begun in regards to SYA's re-rating and the factoring in of the HUGE potential of the expansion merger of NAL into SYA's corporate structure and existing operations. So where to from here with the SP ? If we stick with a pure fibonacci view and come off the previous CR of .0086 we would set our sights on 3.4 cents , but if we used the 1.0 cent resistance , we would arrive then at 4.0 cents.
Irrespective of all this , and as stated numerous times , we would first have to convincingly reach and breach the 3.0 - 3.1 cent target for obvious reasons of the 3 cent unlisted options and the 3.1 ' Controlled Placement ' or CPA to Acuity Capital should SYA drawn down these funds. And why wouldn't they ( SYA , Acuity , or even Obsidian ) ...... if a much ' Larger ' loan was potentially on the table not that much further down the track...
What is ' NEW ' in my opinion is the rather obvious positive rhetoric ' pointer's / indicator's ' ....whatever you want to call it from our new management and in particular our Managing Director Brett Lynch. And it couldn't be more obvious in these statement's that his belief is there is ' Significant ' value to be realized for ALL shareholders should this deal be consummated.
Something else which perhaps has also been overlooked on this recent convertible note announcement is the facts that not only does it send a message and set a finite timeline for the ' First Tranche ' - ie 60 days for meeting and Shareholder's approval , followed then by another 30 days remaining for SYA to draw down that first tranche and Obsidian to convert to it's shares at 1.5 cents on that first tranche.
The other significant feature of the deal which has not been discussed is the mere fact that on the surface of the ' Prima Facie ' deal is the fact that from Obsidian's side of the deal , the notes are priced in USD. And so USD $1.10 is actually the equivalent and in effect like issuing the current AUD SYA shares at $1.59 or a 44.9% ( 45 % .....
) higher premium than what the prima facie face value of the USD $110 Convertible Notes. Interesting that the
110 million ' security ' shares being issued as collateral in they're respected installments of 40 and 70 million are equivalent to security provided at 2.5 cent per share as stated above or 66.6 % of the 1.5 cent issue price , and conveniently a nice little stepping stone towards the ' MAGICAL ' 3.0 -3.1 cent level .
So in my view the impetus to realize the maximum ' return ' for Obsidian beyond their locked in 21% guaranteed gain is to convert the notes as early as possible rather than say hang on until 10 days prior to the 12 month expiry where they will obviously be paying much more. On the other hand if we consider that the Notes have potentially been structured in such a way as to open the door for a much bigger funding loan of say USD $110 million ....with a consolidation of say 10:1 we could very well be looking at a potential re-rating in the SP to a whopping 14.5 cents should the market embrace the funding structure and accretive value of the ' Merged ' SYA / NAL Entity.
Either way and for whatever it's worth - In my opinion it's less to do with Charts and Fibonacci retracement's and more to do with creative Financial Engineering......
(20min delay)