The big surprise packet will be the re-evaluation of the Chinese currency late this year.
It will become stronger against the U.S dollar meaning they can buy base metals cheaper.
India is also a huge growth story that will perhaps pass China soon.
The U.S economy collapsing would cause lower base metal prices, but a collapse is imho a long way off yet if it happens at all.
I think U.S house prices are the key.
cheers.
