"While it's very likely this will go ahead (i.e. you'll be able...

"While it's very likely this will go ahead (i.e. you'll be able to personally exchange your shares for cash) 3-4% cash return doesn't compensate you for the risks. Even if you were 97% sure this was going to happen your expected value buying at 39c is 0."

You have no idea! Back to school...


What about prob of increased offer...probability TS will add 5-10c cash...probability another party puts in a higher all cash offer.

As you said, 0% prob offer withdrawn.

ie, downside 40%


Upside and E(X) must include prob of higher offer.


Lets say, 30% prob offer increased 5c. 10% prob offer increased 10c. 10% prob new party or TS raised to 50c+ (lets roll with 55c).
Remaining 50% = 40c.

E(x) = (0.3*0.45c)+(0.1*0.50c)+(0.1*0.55c)+(0.5*0.40c) = 44cps


All prob's above VERY FAIR AND REASONABLE AND REALISTIC IMO.



ZZZAAZZZ has been ZZZ to much!



Regards,
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