I agree EW.. RAC seems to have everything under control... (expect this mornings share price. The movement has surprised me a bit, but probably hasn't surprised you..)
I sensed over the weekend that I unintentionally upset a couple people on here with a couple open questions asked. That wasn't my intention. I just figure with any investor that is looking at HC they have already done their DD on FA, TA or DA (thanks EW, I liked that one), including reading company announcements and financial reports, so I don't tend to restate these things unless it is in response to a question or trying to clarify something. Anyone that has invested due to FOMO has no interest anyway... I generally use HC to speculate or ask questions that can't be found from announcements or a google search.
Based on what Aqua has stated (thanks for detailed thoughts Aqua) and what has been discussed previously I think we all agree that RAC has a very good chance of being taken over at some point (potentially within 3 years). Now my own valuations weren't quiet as high as Wombat's (which are significantly more thought out and detailed to mine - much appreciated for the share), but I think we'd all also agree that at a minimum we'd be looking at $1.5b. So even if for some bizarre reason (I don't think this would happen) there ends up being 500m shares on the register by this time it would still equate to approximately $3 per share (once again I don't think this will happen). So from here it would be a Disallowed (greater if participate in any CR to eliminate dilution). Therefore as we know dilution is the last thing RAC management want's (even though I'd imagine they'd participate in any raise), the potential return on an investment in RAC is substantial!
I hold just over a couple hundred thousand shares and will most likely leave it at that for the time being. I intend to hold at least 150,000 for the liquid event - hopefully M&A and not receivership - selling the remaining only to guarantee a decent profit along the way.. I decided to put all my funds in after some great posts from EW (thanks again for the help), and regret not doing it earlier. I will put my hand up and say that I am terrible at the TA. Four years of study and 13 years experience in FA makes it hard to just look at the charts, but that's why I value the shared knowledge on TA on HC.
So when it comes to RAC..
What we know:
- Bisantrene 'worked'
- Only need $10m to complete trials
- Israel is in full swing
- As soon as path 3 commences the PRV is pretty much guaranteed - worth anywhere from $75m-$200m+ (maybe this is how they will top up the coffers..?)
- RAC intend to sell within 3 years - 3 years! wow!
- Bisantrene has some great clinical outcomes. I've shared some previously, but this is a favourite as it's on ABC and shows cardio toxicity benefits - https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article/83/15/1077/882648
What we don't know -
- Bisantrene 'works'
- How RAC intends to get $10m (not an actual concern - just curios)
- When we'll get an update on Israel trial
- Why on Earth are people putting in sell orders at this critical point?
- Who has been the major buyer lately (I'd love to have access to the information Dr T has)
Sorry for the long post but just wanted to clarify which side of the fence I was on.. No nasty games being played in my posts. In short, I think RAC is extremely undervalued for the medium (!) term potential.
IMO, DYOR, GLATH, etc.... And thank you to everyone that openly shares their thoughts.
Cheers
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Last
$1.68 |
Change
-0.030(1.75%) |
Mkt cap ! $286.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.73 | $1.73 | $1.68 | $119.9K | 70.42K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3012 | $1.66 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.70 | 6382 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3012 | 1.660 |
1 | 1205 | 1.650 |
1 | 3067 | 1.630 |
1 | 615 | 1.620 |
2 | 18200 | 1.615 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.700 | 6382 | 1 |
1.735 | 609 | 1 |
1.750 | 10096 | 2 |
1.780 | 4483 | 1 |
1.790 | 1000 | 1 |
Last trade - 15.07pm 03/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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