RAC 1.34% $1.84 race oncology ltd

Responsibilities of the team, page-95

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    Hi Titan,

    I have been looking at some others (I didn't dig that deep) - however your question "if I found any with small listed biostocks like RAC". From what I can see, Agios was a small unlisted biostock, like RAC. They had been performing preclinical work prior to the partnership with Celgene and that had been showing promising results. The Celgene partnership was worth US$351.7 to Agios (who still distribute directly in the US) - not including NPAT royalty payments for Celgene to distribute globally. This included a US$120m payment for Agios to commence trials (which from memory were subsequently approved by the FDA straight out of stage 2).

    A question I would ask you is; why do you place so little value on RAC? Why do you only expect an upfront payment of $10m? Celgene took on a fair bit of risk (i.e. Tibsovo failing), however; they also wound up with quite the deal. I don't know the complete distribution of sales so I can only speculate; Tibsovo is expected to hit peak sales of US$300m. If you assume half of those sales occur outside of the US that is US$150m for Celgene (minus royalities).

    For the sake of round numbers; say Tibsovo generates Celgene US100m after royalty payments to Agios. They aquired the right to distribute it for US$351.7... bargain. I f you consider RAC's potential market I'd argue that US350m for global distribution rights to Bisantrene would be too bloody cheap.

    Quick (un-referenced) response as I'm off to the pub. DYOR.

    Edit: Agios didn't dilute the company - they just reduced earning potential.
    Last edited by johndprent: 14/02/20
 
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