Jim, Yes Lynas has a plant with a WDV of $600 mill, but they...

Jim,

Yes Lynas has a plant with a WDV of $600 mill, but they also have significant liabilities, net assets are $180 mill at the end of June.

Reason for reserves not being in balance sheet has nothing to do with tax, you would only pay tax when you make a profit on selling some of that reserve.

I am not an expert on mining/exploation accounting but would suggest that BHP show oil and gas reseves in the BS as they are saleable products, effectively held in huge underground warehouses.
Now what value or how saleable is a tonne of earth, even theough it contain 10% REE, it needs significant processing to have any value.

Next, why do you think that a Lynas buyer would effectively pay for all future profits in your valuation method, going out 50 plus years.

If you do a bit of research, you will find significant research being done on the next generation of permanent magnets which use no REE and range from the same magnetic strenth as NdFeB magnets to multiples. Just last week it was reported that a Japanese Institite managed to produce a magnet, usually found in meteors. The big breakthrough was that these magnets require millions of years of slow cooling to form, the Japanese managed to produce it in under two days.

I am not suggesting that NdPr is going to be useless tomorrow, but there will be cheaper stronger alternatives on the market in 5 - 10 years. So I doubt anyone would be paying for more than ten years out as there is a huge risk that technology will bypass NdPr magnets.