High risk capital owners / shareholders tolerance of continuous under-performing unresponsive share price associated with complex obscured company perceptions are exhausted.
CTP is significantly undervalued vulnerable to opportunistic takeover / break-up / spin-off / re-listing in new simpler cleaner marketable structure
transferring significant existing unacknowledged value to predator.
Urgent clarification / articulation / publication of nature of ongoing business activity is required.
Numerous choices are to be made with company plan subsequently widely detailed.
Many decisions present about frontier exploration / existing shut-in Surprise field / existing producing fields development / continuation of current
drill campaigns / potential further modest accumulative asset buys.
Substantial new disposable income is available to progress all current prospects in modest linear programmes. This approach requires tolerance
of ( high ) risked capital perennially delayed reward, abandonment of prospect of dividends , modest goals. Expectations / ambitions may be
speeded number of ways : reducing % ownership of current exploration drilling, relinquishing prospects, selling prospects, farm-outs , new capital
raisings.
Dukas drill success presents choice of maintaining current % ownership or reducing it. Lower % ownership would shrink size of future spend
obligations short / medium / long term. Continued current % ownership requires commitment to financing ongoing substantial seismic drilling
to prove new field , buy install expensive treatment equipment , build south to Moomba pipeline. Spend will be large likely finaced by new capital raisings.
Range Incitec Pivot joint venture drill success gives another choice. Current $ 20 million drill is paid by Incitec without direct financial input from CTP. Other details about CTP's obligations are unclear. Is CTP obliged to subsequently pay half current drill costs ? If Incitec keeps Gibson Island
open will it buy gas from joint venture at reduced price to recover $ 10 million ? If Incitec closes Gibson Island might CTP buy Incitec's 50 % of JV
as modest accretive asset purchase ? If buy financed from revenue it would delay other exploration / asset development . Capital raise indicated ?
Surprise currently shut-in has other leads nearby also requiring seismic / drilling. Commercial development requires " multiple ( incremental )
accumulations to justify ". Further assessment currently on hold when done may lead to abandoning prospect. CTP now much more financial remains small with extent of necessary seismic / drill perhaps judged too financially risky . If Surprise is to be divested who would buy it ?
Who would joint venture ? Seismic spend would be minimum needed to make it interesting to JVenturer. It may be a complete write - off ? Kept
it is likely low priority for substantial later follow-up. Capital raise indicated ?
Two wells have proven flow at Ooraminna . Flows were uneconomic in area of low natural fracture density. Structural mapping , reprocessing of seismic , outcrop modelling , integrated into natural fracture model have identified drill site for ( delayed ) Ooraminna 3 well. Drill now programmed for March 2020. Estimated OGIP 125 Bcf - 425 Bcf. Success would open area for further seismic drill connection to Dingo spend. What is drill outcome learning from WM 26 - does it have application here ?
Mereenie / Dingo / Palm Valley all have recompletion / workover potential. Mereenie has 45 P1 gas cap wells with prospective resources 130 Bcf
- 38 cf each well. P3 gas cap wells @ 38 cf / 5 wells 15 Bcf targeted resources. P4 is WM 14 and WM 15. Existing P1 or P3 WM 16, 17 , 18 may be deepened to P4 gas caps. New wells targeting P4 can be drilled. CONTINUED PART 2
High risk capital owners / shareholders tolerance of continuous...
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