Targeted prospective resources from 3 recompleted and 3 deepened wells 18 Bcf. Another 7 to 8 successful wells are needed to produce 40 Bcf. Dingo is redrill opportunity with satellite prospects with seismic and drill obligations 2019 ( delayed ? ) and 2020. Palm Valley has natural decline profile with water ingress impact unclear. Inability to restart PV 1 indicates potential further development opportunity. Substantial work is available here with financing / programme development / scheduling / prioritising effort to do. EP 115 North Mereenie block obligation 500 kms seismic is delayed to be informed by Dukas drill learning.
Macquarie may decide to exit its 50 % ownership of Mereenie providing opportunity for " modest accumulative asset acquisition ". Capital raise may finance buy. With development prospects at Mereenie and high gas prices continuing Mac may see further value taking over CTP while sharemarket neglect of co remains. Mac would then rationalise / spin-off / simplify co rapidly.
Ethabuka dry gas discovery 0.2 MMcfd 1793 MD was followed by Total's withdrawal from prospect at time of international collapse of oil price. Well was abandoned with mechanical difficulties. Obligation to drill 2 wells 2500 m or 4 wells 1000 / 1500 m exists. " It is difficult to justify meeting commitments " so what will happen in this frontier situation ? Existing pipeline is comparatively closer than elsewhere - substantial discovery would make gas transportation access manageable issue. Further exploration would require redrilling / seismic / more drilling. Further seismic is essential to make marketable for farm-in. Geology / geophysical year one obligations are under way in three other Georgina Basin prospects.
Wiso Basin is going to be further appraised after Beetaloo fracking results later this year. This is frontier prospect with substantial investigations required to identify , prepare , advance prospects. Minimum spend required to make marketable for farm-in is seismic. Is CTP preparing to deal with
anti-frac eco-terrorists ? Fracking involvement may problematise farm-in efforts.
Currently ability to leverage off high gas prices is limited by pipeline capacities. Substantial new Mereenie / Dingo / Palm Valley / Ooraminna gas discovery would likely intensify commerciality of increasing pipeline capacities.
Following hostile takeover new owner will rapidly rationalise , simplify , re-structure , re-float assets crystallising significant currently unacknowledged value transfer.
Wealth value transfer risk is obvious.
Risk capital owners / shareholders may act on this recognition moving to protect / realising value by :
1. retain Mereenie / Dingo / Palm Valley / Ooraminna Range JV / Surprise as income generating dividend paying / self-funding exploration / existing asset development in existing listed company structure ;
2. hive off all other prospects into new company structure re-floating on stock exchange.
Risk capital owners / shareholders ( not short-term traders ) could co-operate working this proposal to be put to and actioned by Board through AGM vote.
New structure , clean . simplified , asset development self - funding , dividend paying profile increases attractiveness to ongoing and potential risk capital owners / shareholders.
Short term traders would find more appropriate pivot points periodically in new clearer frontier exploration hived - off company.
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