results aftermath

Apologies for my lack of input into the forum of late - I've been on holidays. Still am for that matter and have infrequent internet access. That said, I have seen the announcement.

Few points of interest based on what I've heard....

1. Selling before announcement was almost certainly not insider trading. Rumour I've heard is that one of the major brokers holding AVX has a policy of advising clients to sell in the lead up to results announcements. its happened before this for good announcements and bad and will probably happen again.

2. Announcement wording a terrible effort at balancing scientific caution with investor optimism. Apparently the result of authorship by committee. We all know the story of a camel being a horse designed by a committee - fortunately, in this case the reality is we still have a thoroughbred horse, just a pity it was described to the market as a camel.

3. I believe the company regards the data as good and in some aspects, actually better than expected, (and that view not restricted to Avexa). They would obviously have spoken previously to prospective partners about closing the trial early and they would understand the limited powering based on the projected endpoints.

4. My understanding is that there are more positives to come when the more detailed results are released (ie that will help, not harm prospects).

5. Prospective partners won't make any decision based on a poorly worded ASX announcement. They will be interested in the overall details of the study, - if ATC treats people and has advantages over the the standard of care ... and particularly whether ATC has a position and benefit in the current market. The overall results indicates it does, which is a plus given the small size of the study.

6. Some aspects of the results are very very good, in particular the CD4+ count rises which I think are better than any recent studies, include Merck's integrase inhibitor.

My understanding is that Avexa would expect prospective partners would have expected similar results to these and in some instances would be positively surprised.