MRQ (ASX) Retraction of Fully Diluted Market Cap Assumption

Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

I'm going over my previous MRQ posts to see where I might have been misleading or inaccurate following complaints to HC by the company. Just starting, but read the TA thread discussion today where some posters have regrets about not taking profits in the 2's a couple of weeks ago after being swayed by bullish posters to hang on for the next price lift. It's a reminder of how important it is to be careful of the stock market's inherent uncertainty when posting opinions and conclusions. Better late than never, but I would like to retract my assertion that MRQ should have it's market cap considered on a 'fully diluted basis' of ~2.1B shares based on possible future share issues. Posters that argued against me were correct in fact. Material uncertainty obviously exists that Performance Rights will trigger or Options that will be exercised.

Although i remain confident that the 160M A Perfomance Righs shares for a resource >350Mt >5% will trigger, and that such a resource will probably support a company produced economic scoping study that triggers 320M B Perfomance Rights shares, 'confident' is all I can be, not 'almost certain' as I posted. I'm embarrassed to admit, but my misplaced confidence that ~600M 1c Options would get exercised in December 2020 was a classic catch for young players; the 'recency effect'. When I arrived on the MRQ thread and it's shares were trading at 2.5c the options were so far in the money one I gave that recent share price too much weighting, and thus presented too much certainty.

Now the share price has come back towards 1c it's clear that many things could push the MRQ share under 1c by December and the 1c Options might pass un-exercised. The market might be underwhelmed by Koko Massava drill results (and by extension future resource statements) or disappointed in future exploration results from other targets. Option holders selling shares in the months before December to fund exercising the options rather than tip more funds into an already long position might pressure the price. The stock market might enter a substantial correction phase where junior explorers get heavily sold off indiscriminately. If the share price falls below 1c the market might become concerned about what price MRQ might raise capital to fund future work if the options are not exercised and the expected $6M Option money doesn't hit the bank.

The only certainty is MRQ has currently just over 1B shares on issue to calculate the market cap and that figure should be used when contemplating an investment. For me to state with such overconfidence that MRQ would almost certainly end up with 2.1B shares on issue by the end of the year was reckless and I apologise if anyone was mislead. I doubt it though, my opinion was thoroughly and rightly discredited by other posters at the time. Most posters on HC are usually over confident or over zealous in presenting their opinions, it goes with the territory, especially in the heat of debate when prosecuting an argument. Likewise, most readers should know it's them to keep this in mind when considering views and opinions discussed. Everyone has their own bias, views will differ, and HC is for informative discussion to help make your own mind up not investment advice obviously.

Good luck

Expand

Probably one of the most backhanded 'apologies' I've ever seen. No sincerity in it other than to rub it in that the share price has declined significantly.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
38	28825278	0.3¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

28825278

0.3¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.4¢	15120767	10

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.4¢

15120767

No.	Vol.	Price($)
38	28825278	0.003
16	17083249	0.002
26	38801053	0.001
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

No.

Vol.

Price($)

28825278

0.003

17083249

0.002

38801053

0.001

0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.004	14320767	9
0.005	16752153	21
0.006	12196646	15
0.007	7100000	10
0.008	7188095	7

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.004

14320767

0.005

16752153

0.006

12196646

0.007

7100000

0.008

7188095

(20min delay)
Last 0.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $10.90M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.4¢	0.4¢	0.4¢	$2.32K	589.2K

Retraction of Fully Diluted Market Cap Assumption, page-18

Recce scores $6.75M R&D rebate

Yangibana 33% complete says Hastings, as it provides clarification on funding

HotCopper reacts as Resolute Mining told to pay US$160M if it wants its CEO back

ASX Market Open: Australia stocks track higher despite sluggish US performances after Fed comments | November 15, 2024

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Retraction of Fully Diluted Market Cap Assumption, page-18

Top Stories

Recce scores $6.75M R&D rebate

Yangibana 33% complete says Hastings, as it provides clarification on funding

HotCopper reacts as Resolute Mining told to pay US$160M if it wants its CEO back

ASX Market Open: Australia stocks track higher despite sluggish US performances after Fed comments | November 15, 2024

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News