retskas bear culling thursday, page-11

In America:

Dow Industrials +2.47%
Dow Transports +3.35%
SP500 +2.86%
Russell 2000 +4.2%
Nasdaq100 +2.59%

Comment: The American market was up very strongly last night on low volume. Just as there hasn?t been a lot of conviction in the selling, now there?s not a lot of conviction in the buying. If this rally is to have legs, then we need to see some increase in the volume.

NewHighs/NewLows came in at 19/16. The NHs barely beat the NLs but at least the ratio is leaning the right way.

The Materials Sector +2.87% and Energy Sector +3.66%. That?s promising for Australia today. All nine S&P Sectors were up with the important Financial Sector the best performer +4.79%. The Banking Sector was up, +5.88%. Semi-conductors was up, +4.47%.

Europe:
France +3.63%
Germany +4.07%
London +3.14%

Gold in U.S. Dollars is down -2.93%. Gold in Oz Dollars is down -4.43%. AUD/USD rose, +1.32% to finish at 106.61. The Ozzie is still above the 200-Day Moving Average and still in the congestion zone 104-108. EWA (the ETF for Australian shares) up +3.88%.

Technical Comment on the DJ Industrial Average:
The DJIA finished at 11414.9. Horizontal resistance around 11500 then 11700. Horizontal support around 11000
Above the 13-Day MA. Positive.
Below the 150-Day MA. Negative.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 50.6. Needs to get back above its signal line.
The 13-Day MA is below the 150-Day MA. Long-term negative.
RSI.9 is at 51.7. Above 50 is positive.
MACD Histogram above Zero. Positive.
MACD at zero. Neutral.
CCI.9: 24.96. Negative. Above zero ? positive.

The past three days have been a classic reversal pattern ? big down day, reversal day, strong up day. It looks promising.

The chart pattern is still ambiguous. It looks like an upsloping channel to me ? so the market could be headed for the upper side of the channel. But ? it could also be a bear flag.

Yesterday I said: "We now need confirmation of today?s positive action with a strong up day tomorrow on good volume". We got the strong up day but not good volume. So the jury is still out.

The market is highly volatile. I think we might still need to do some more base building. I?d really like to see this market settle down a bit ? get a bit boring then have a break-out.

Good luck
Redb