AMU amadeus energy limited

No news from wilberts skitz. either their still going or she's a...

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    No news from wilberts skitz. either their still going or she's a dud. Will find out soon enough in the monthly. I'm encouraged by the strength of poo but more promising in the medium term is the gas price. Let's not forget this is a major part of AMU's business. Below is a article posted by petai (many thanks)on the PSA thread. Specific to AMU are the parts about USA. Remembering the gas line which will be up and running very soon.>

    The Gas Air Pocket Sets Up
    Now I am seeing the same pattern in natural gas (or as traders sometimes call it, "natty"), only the danger of constrained supply is possibly even greater, since about 84% of US natural gas consumed is produced domestically and there is very little storage throughout the system.

    Gas prices have plunged 72% from their record of over $13 per Mcf1 to $3.75 on Monday, taking it all the way back to 2002 pricing. (The spot price for natural gas has only fallen below $4 once since 2002, in September 2006.)


    Figure 1 NYMEX Henry Hub prices, 2-year chart

    Source: Trading Charts

    As with oil, the collapse in prices has forced many drillers, especially marginal producers, to lay down their rigs. According to data from Baker Hughes, natural gas exploration rigs in the United States have fallen steadily from a record 1,606 in September to 884 as of March 13, a more than 45% decline in active rigs.

    Theresa Gusman, head of equity research for Deutsche Bank AG's (DB) DB Advisors unit, has estimated that spending on U.S. exploration and production will drop 40% to $22.5 billion this year.

    According to a Bloomberg report, the sharp cutback in drilling could produce as much as a 5% loss in gas production in the fourth quarter of this year, even more than the decline projected by the Department of Energy.

    Larry Nichols, chief executive officer of natural gas producer Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), also sees an air pocket forming for natural gas. "When the recession ends and the economy starts booming, we're going to have less natural gas than we do today and prices are going to spike back up," he said two weeks ago. "The drop in supply will be so steep, it could easily catch up to where demand has dropped to before the recession ends."
    Costs Are Key
    Beyond the general decline in drilling, there is another factor that augurs higher prices. Nearly all of the increase in domestic natural gas production we have enjoyed for the last several years has come from the unconventional shale plays we have frequently discussed in these pages, like the Barnett, Haynesville, and Marcellus formations.

    Unfortunately, unconventional shale gas is more expensive to produce than conventional gas, and only a small fraction of the potential makes economic sense when gas is selling for $3.75 per Mcf. According to global energy advisory firm Tristone Capital Inc., the average cost of production in the top nine North American shale plays is around $4.50 per Mcf.

    Yet there are some producers who can still make a profit at these levels. For example, Atlas Energy reports its drilling costs in the Marcellus Shale—the most profitable of the shale plays, in New York and Pennsylvania—as running $1.49 per Mcf, so drilling continues there, albeit at a slower pace. The Haynesville formation is still profitable as well, but drilling in the Barnett and Fayetteville formations has all but stopped, as the cost of production there is too high. Barnett producers claim they need gas back in the $6-8 range before they'll resume drilling.

    ______________
    This is from an email titled "Energy & Capital
    I hope the information is useful but I can't personally verify the info
    Once I work out to do it I'll post up the associated charts




 
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