According to the half yearly report, the Dairy sector revenue is down 20% and Ingredient is down 9%.
While inventory is down by 10% and milk intake is down 20%.
From my point of view, the underlying problem for MG at the moment is not MSSP or the volume of Milk Intake, but the major issue of declining revenue in dairy sector.
The majority of down-rampers simply has the tendency to use declining milk volume as a point to say "MG profit is going down". More than half of milk intake goes to ingredient business which is subject to the volatility of global dairy price.
I see MG going forward by relying more on dairy products and less on ingredient products. As long as MG has sufficient milk supply for its Dairy Sector products, the current volume of milk intake has little effect on the long term strategy of MG.
Furthermore, on the table is the reduction of annualized cost by up to $60 million by 2018 and release of capital by up to $100 million by 2017. On the positive note, declining milk intake prompts MG to conserve its capital and restructure its asset and distribution network. I believe MG has significant amount of under performing asset with market value worth more than the cash flow from operation.
PS: most downrampers are not even helping investors to understand a firm. Rather, they use the same negative comment, every time the stock price drops.
Good luck to holders. I am long for long terms. Believe in the underlying economic of the business, not the market sentiment.
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