Some data I had collected from previous announcements
Revenue stated in the half yearly was 1.96M made up of 1.21M Aus (480K Q2 according to 2 Feb Investor update, therefore 730K Q1) and 744K China (512K Q2 according to 2 Feb Invesotr update, therefore 232K Q1). Aust revenue has had steady growth but the 480K for the Q2 quarter is more in line with previous earnings so likely to earn another 500K per quarter. China revenue currently growing at about 40K per month which has a high chance of continuing. Jan 225K, Feb 260K (17/3/15) and Mar 300K (9/4/15) comes to 785K for Q3 and 1140K for Q4 extrapolating. This gives likely second half figures of 1M Aust + 1.925M China = 2.95M 2H and full year of 1.96M + 2.95M = 4.91M revenue FY. BBY estimate was also 4.9M
Costs are harder to put figures on but I would agree with some of what Imran khan wrote 'Cost of sales for the 6 months to Dec was $1.8m. (Cost of sales will increase as revenue increases). OPEX for the 6 months to Dec was $1m. So $2.8m costs for the 6 months; or say $6m for the 12 months as revenue scales up'. This info is from the halfyearly.
There is recurrent no cost revenue however there is also further growth so implementation costs will likely be stable as they move from project to project while revenue increases. Increased costs are likely to come from advertising and marketing as per Q2 2nd Feb which showed an increase from 289K in Q1 to 838K in Q2 and as they roll out to each new province, I would expect this to increase. The quarterly will shed more light on things.
Other numbers.
Guangdong province 8% population, likely rolled out 1st? March (10/3/15)
Jiangsu province 6% population, likely rolled out 19th? March (24/3/15)
Sichuan province 6% population, likely rolled out 26th? March (24/3/15)
China mobile 800M subscribers (10/3/15) - current roll outs
China telecom and China unicom combined 470M subscribers (2/9/15)
Some CR notes I posted previously:
As of 31 Dec, 1.5M cash (1.65M with cash equiv's) and 940K trade and receivables. Seems like plenty but with 1M current liabilities, the lag in China of paying receivables (quote below), and the focus on growth leading to initial outlay costs, I'm wondering if they will need one last private placement before becoming CF positive in FY2016?
'(Receivables due to be paid of $933k at 31 Dec 2014 this is primarily driven by 90 day payment terms offered in the Chinese business unit and $295k outstanding from the ATO).' Comes from the 2nd Feb Ann - Appendix 4C quarterly.
According to the BBY report 24 March: 'SMA’s gets paid 3-4 weeks quicker under this method.' Therefore the lag should be reduced to 2m.
Really comes down to how much the current roll outs have cost. The quarterly should help to fill in a few blanks which wegian helpfully pointed out, is due on the 29th April.
DYOR and make your own opinion
Revenue, expenses and other numbers
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