CUV 0.65% $15.27 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

Revenue EXPLOSION Coming?

  1. 776 Posts.
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    I'm trying to put some revenue growth estimates together for Clinuvel just on US sales. It looks to be amazing with the speed of the Clinuvel rollout of treatment centres in the US and the fact that patients can be having up to 6 implants as opposed to currently 4 in Europe. So here is a very conservative attempt based on the following assumptions: 34 US EPP treatment centres accredited. Patients will be having 6 implants. $25000 implant price (I think this is conservative). And the final assumption is that each centre will only be treating ONE patient per week - very conservative IMO and meaning every 2 months they start treating the first patient again (This means only 8 Patients per Centre). With these assumptions and figures it means only 272 US EPP patients are treated in total which is a very low market penetration. Maybe they will have more than this but maybe not all will get the full 6 implants so let's see how this works out.

    34 (Treatment centres - multiplied by)
    8 (Patients per centre {very conservative IMO, means just one patient per week} - multiplied by)
    6 (Implants per year- multiplied by)
    25000 (implant price)

    EQUALS $40,800,000

    So this is what we could be looking at just for US sales in the next 12 months, plus any sales from TOPICALS and on top of any EURO growth (eg France) coming out from a COVID affected year in which CUV still performed strongly. So I'm not sure why CUV trades on such a low valuation, I fully expect about 100% revenue growth for the coming quarterly at the end of Jan, followed by a big jump in EPS for the half yearly. And all of this just while US rollout was in it's infancy. For the full year I'm hoping for about 50% revenue growth and same for profits.
    Basically there will be many, many quarters of strong revenue growth coming now based on the US rollout. And all of this is just on the proof of concept disease EPP. When read-outs come for new indications we could see the 7.5 Billion Market cap figures become realistic. After all it is based on NEW INDICATIONS (Not a whole New Drug) for an already FDA, TGA, EMA approved and SAFE drug with years of data backing it, and SAFETY is the main factor being considered by regulators as all the new indications being targeted currently have no effective treatment. It will only take one.
    All IMO, DYOR.

 
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