From what I understand from drilling reports to date they are...

From what I understand from drilling reports to date they are drilling into fractured chalk. I assume when the well is first sunk the gas stored in the spaces is able to be produced rapidly, after a short period this will be largely depleted and then production will be mostly from gas trapped in the chalk seeping into the fractures. One would expect a rapid initial decline followed by a flattening off within a short period.

When I have time I'll try to build an exponential regression model to model the drop off in each well and see how similar they are in terms of decay constant/half-time to see if it is feasible to predict the rate of drop-off and when this should plateau. Often difficult to get any accuracy this early though as initial flow is often limited by factors other than formation characteristics (including - expelling drilling fluids, back-pressure from valves etc) so may have to wait a while before buildig a valid model.

Overall supply over time must go up with continued success. At the time Marlin comes on line they will have one new well, one each 3,6 and 9 months old.

When the next well is finished they will have one new, one each 3,6,9, and 12 months old - so they have gained about the flow of a 12 month old well compared to the previous well. Even if this means just an extra 0.25 mmcf/d nett for each well drilled (incremental from current 2 mmcf/d) that is still $2K per day extra or $730K per year, on top of 15K/d ($5m per annum) from current production - which will add up over 20 or so wells.

Remains underpriced IMO. So far so good with marlin - gas found and they will be over half way through the lateral by now and hopefully will complete it.