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Revenue from Japan, page-5

  1. 310 Posts.
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    I would advise caution on these numbers. The 3500 patients p.a is Japan's estimated TOTAL addressable market. The 1000 patient figure represents a somewhat more realistic figure HOWEVER these things take time to set up, train doctors, distribute and make the market even aware of the product.

    I would expect it to be like turning a tap. Medicine is a slow field to change, don't expect much in the first year.

    My estimates for Japan only;
    Year 1 - 50 to 200 patients
    Year 2 - 200 to 500
    Year 3 - 500 to 750
    Year 4 - 750 to 1000

    Remember many people don't have the necessary insurance, can't make the co-payment or simply can't afford it.

    Note: Global Data estimates GLOBAL GvHD therapeutics market at $261.6m in 2010, growing to $615.1m in 2018 (msb 29th April 2014). Japan is a tiny fraction of that market.
 
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