Revenue from Japan, page-7

Remember the treatment was measured on a 100 day survival where 64% of patients responded to treatment, meaning 36% did not. Of that 64%, 100 day survival was 81% with the non responder survival rate at 39%.

Bringing these 2 percentages together gets a 51.8% (0.64*0.81) chance of survival to day 100 when using Prochymal... that's really not that great especially when compared to the non-responder 100 day survival at 39%.

So all up, this treatment provides an additional 12.8% chance of surviving to day 100.... and that costs US $113 000 to $170 000.

With minimal side effects it comes down to cost. Do you think people are willing to pay that much for a 12.8% chance? I think some people will.... but will the majority of the market pay it, maybe, maybe not it will depend on subsidies.


This is a simplified scenario in the fact that I have not accounted for grade of disease (B, C, D), you can do your own math for each grade. Someone please check my logic, I think it is sound. If you can prove otherwise, then good on you.