Revenue Strong for 2021 and 2022

Below is an attempt to understand the outlook for Baltec IES as detailed in the EGL announcement.

The key message is that revenues for Baltec IES will lift from $11M in 2020 to a minimum of $26M in 2021 and will be strong in 2022 given that the company is 10 months away and expects a further $10m of contract wins by September 30 2020.

Here is the relevant para. from the announcement of 22 July.




So here is my attempt to understand just what that says.




Not being in the industry is a disadvantage as when I read the announcement and particularly the $25.5 million of contracts already secured, I wonder does that include the $18M of carry-over work. If it does then to achieve the forecast revenue of $26M the balance of the $25.5M secured, i.e. $7.5M, will be bought to account this year in achieving revenue of $26M. That leaves a shortfall of $0.5M. Given that the company announced that they expect "an additional $10M of contracts in the first quarter of FY21," I have taken $0.5M of that to achieve the $26M revenue for FY21.

So on these numbers FY22 starts the year with $9.5M of revenue. Given that we still have ten month of FY21 remaining and given the rate of contract wins, FY22 is shaping up to be as good if not better than FY21.

But all this assumes that only $0.5M of the expected contracts of $10M are used in this fiscal year. That I would think unlikely. So my view is that FY21 will deliver closer to $30M+ in Revenue for Baltec IES.

I may of course misunderstand the relationship between Carry-Over Work of $18M and the $25.5M of already secured. As you will note I have treated these as part of the same, when they may be two seperate and distinct components, in which case I am way to conservative. If anyone understands this relationship please enlighten me.

Anyway, FY21 and FY22 look like records years for Baltec IES.
Looking forward to confirmation in the results announcement.