RFE 0.00% 0.0¢ series 2018-1 reds trust

Gee - out of interest - which was the good bit - the...

  1. 738 Posts.
    Gee - out of interest - which was the good bit - the administration overhead decrease or the "yep were still gunnerdoo" bit or "expects a significant....." or "...with the ability to proceed with its planned drilling..." or the number of times "record" was stated. Sheesh - just get on with it without the BS. I've lost count of the failed gunnerdoo's but the market hasn't

    Revenue - Quarter on quarter net revenue has increased by $207K only, which I assume is substantially (but not all - Tulsa oil + gas) as a consequence of the Coronado gas wells where ~97K Mcf (60 day settlement so Nov + Dec + Jan) should be reflected. So this appears to mean - at best - when the US spot gas price is around $5 MMBtu as it was during the period then the net margin is only $2 MMBtu - at best assuming there was not any other revenue source increase during the period. Gas prices will decrease into the US summer therefore it would appear that these wells are summer marginal when spot price of around $3 MMBtu.

    Oil - Rosier #1-27 and Fuss #1-34 produced a total of 5433 Bbl so these two on average produced around 30 Barrels per day - at best noting that not all production oil came from these 2. This seems less than I expected and will it be new revenue in the next 1/4 ly or is the "record" oil production just a nominal increase from previous. Gross revenue from such a production level should be around $400K +. I suspect that it already forms a fair whack of the 205MMcfe for the quarter.

    East Oklahoma - approximately 29 wells in production with another 20 coming on line some time in the never never giving a total of 49 on line some time in the never never. This is way way short of the 149 wells promised in its company strategies by June - well short. At the rate they drop in shallow holes their 1st target for June 2010 - 149 producers - will be achieved by July 2018.

    The flowery "record" after "record" after "record" announcements we have seen for a long time don't appear to add up.

    Sure there is $10 million in the bank but given a $3 million cash burn for that 1/4 the money pile isn't endless. Currently it doesn't remotely look like a cash flow positive proposition and "self funded" development seems unachieveable.

    If I look sideways at coys related to management I do see much good as well as a common broker relationship. Read the associated stock threads and join the dots for common themes. This coy is suffering from say anything announcements being forthcoming for too long and the market reckons they are full of it. Credits for potential are well an truly exhausted and I would suggest the top 20 is proving fairly liquid. A new one would be warranted on request as the prvious was misleading insofar as David Fry (who holds a top 20 position) was not included for what ever reason.

    Dwelling in the bottom drawer now in hope - too illiquid to sell out if you happen to hold anything other than a sniff.

    Aside from all that and plenty of other stuff its all going well at RFE and it is being snapped up vigorously as a must have share.

    All IMO and DYOR
 
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