LTP

1.81%

$1.63 ltr pharma limited

Hm $200 for 16 doses or $12.50 per use seems alot, 1 Viagra pill...

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mhkforevermci

3,132 Posts.

234

22/08/24

23:22

Post #: 75333894

Originally posted by Spongieman: ↑
Commercialisation has not been factored into the share prices as yet, but this will be a natural progression given the product is now on the market here in AUS and sales have now commenced (all things going well, I get my bottle by the end of the week to test myself, but I/we know it works, works well & is backed by clinical studies).
The strategy to sell here under early access scheme is not expected to reap huge revenue just yet, more so to showcase use of product and sales in a developed market, which will help with FDA approval. So, its got me thinking, what does revenue look like?
Basic model below assuming $200 price (known), 16 doses per bottle (known) and 90% margin (pretty confident with this number). I have assumed each patient will buy 3 bottles (conservative) and modelled for 20,000 (A) and 100,000 (B) patients. Reality is substantially more users (10% of ED market in the US = 33M patients) and more bottles per patient, but let's be conservative for the purpose of the exercise.
Assumptions A B
1 Spontan Price $200.00 $200.00
2 Spontan (Doses) 16 16
3 Spontan - Price $12.50 $12.50
4 Annual usage (Spray bottle sold to each patient per annum) 3 3
5 ED Patients 20,000 100,000
6 Gross revenue (patients x annual usage x spray price) $12,000,000 $60,000,000
7 Gross Margin % 90% 90%
8 Gross Profit $10,800,000 $54,000,000

These are the type of RETURNS are what Private Equity investors chase....simply stunning based on 100,000 users. We can assume when we get into the US and other markets, number of users will be multiples of this. When we submit to FDA in 2025 or before (meeting planned with FDA later this year with Aptar by our side), investors will finally see what is sitting under their noses right now. Pre-revenue is when the real money is made on a stock and LTP could be anything. This is not rocket science with many variables (like a mining stock) and we have considerably de-risked with announcements over the last month. Is the stock cheap given what we know and have...time will tell!

DYOR...This is not advice, just a simple model using assumptions, some which are known and others variable for my own investment purposes.
Expand
Hm $200 for 16 doses or $12.50 per use seems alot, 1 Viagra pill is like $2.50 etc? Thanks

https://www.chemistwarehouse.com.au/buy/61362/viagra-100mg-tablets-12---*word disallowed by google

LTP Price at posting: $1.55 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Hm $200 for 16 doses or $12.50 per use seems alot, 1 Viagra pill...

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	Assumptions	A	B
1	Spontan Price	$200.00	$200.00
2	Spontan (Doses)	16	16
3	Spontan - Price	$12.50	$12.50
4	Annual usage (Spray bottle sold to each patient per annum)	3	3
5	ED Patients	20,000	100,000
6	Gross revenue (patients x annual usage x spray price)	$12,000,000	$60,000,000
7	Gross Margin %	90%	90%
8	Gross Profit	$10,800,000	$54,000,000

Hm $200 for 16 doses or $12.50 per use seems alot, 1 Viagra pill...

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