I have done some a little more research, alb is vuneralbe to takeover to some extent. I believe there would be too many competing intersts to takeover alb at this point of development.
Firstly you have a joint venture with 3 parties, bhp, zfx, and to some exent their off take parnter jinchuan, if xstrat is also intersted that leaves up to 5 interested parties, this would create too much interest for a value for money takeover at this stage. The bidding war would create a fully valued company and expose a takeover company to downside if or when metal prices fall.
I do not believe the top 20 shareholders who own 70% of the company are stupid enough to let go of a potential monster asset. Futher more if they are, I believe I could achieve $1 billion finance to take this over myself. Those stupid analysts who believe that xtrata can take this over for $750 million are fools.
Most of the other assets are jv so there is limmited upside for a company like xtrata the likes to own the lot, I think that would rule xtrata out as a bidder. There would be more upside for zfx who is in jv with the zinc which has a likely chance of being a $28billion deposit if their expectations come true. Alb will end up with 30%. If zfx gained control of that 30% would pay for a takeover 4 times over.
Futher more if this resource can be trippled, and jinchuann does put a smelter in and go 50% jv with alb, that would be game set match for ALB.
I predict if jinchaun and alb go jv with a smelter and zfx zinc jv comes off, Alb would end up with a market cap of $3.7 billion or $23.12 per share and some.
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5.2¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $6.860M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 172000 | 5.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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5.5¢ | 54525 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 172000 | 0.052 |
1 | 100000 | 0.051 |
1 | 100000 | 0.050 |
2 | 145000 | 0.049 |
1 | 150000 | 0.046 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.055 | 54525 | 1 |
0.057 | 1825 | 1 |
0.059 | 50000 | 1 |
0.065 | 12500 | 1 |
0.070 | 200000 | 1 |
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