On the basis of a 1% increase in world steel demand (World Steel Association), (net increase in iron ore requirements around 50m tons) a reduction on Vale's 2017 guidance of 20m tons, a reduction in both Rio and BHP's guidance of 20m tons plus Samarco not opening at least until mid 2017 if at all we are looking at demand for an additional 100m tons of iron ore approximately on 2016 supply numbers.
On this basis I have revised my estimate for 2017 to iron ore prices of 70 to 80 per ton 62% fe fines.
I will remind everybody that I predicted prices of 55-60 a ton for the back half of 2016 in March this year.
That will make FMG a 10 stock in 2017 at 13 times earnings.
DYOR
Revised Estimate Iron Ore Prices 70 -80 2017
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