I might have been a bit harsh on operating costs - maybe more like US$1 instead of US$2/mcf - adds around US$60K over 3 years. Back of the envelope, based on current prices, I calculate IMP would get the cost of drilling repaid over 3 years, with around 30 years of cashflow slowly ticking in after that at around $US10-20K net per well per year. Need to DCF this to value today - US$200K at best
I can make my point with less numbers - acquisition prices for this type of play are generally around US$2/mcf of reserves. If a well has average recoverable reserves of 374,000mcf and IMP has a 60% net interest = 224,000 mcf attributable, or a value of US448K. IMP's cost of the well is US$200K so every successful well adds around US$250K in shareholder value. Assuming a success rate of 95% = around US$235K. So if IMP could magically drill 100 wells overnight, value creation would be US$23.5m or around A$30m - conincidentally = 1.5 billion shares x 2 cents ie only once the drilling program is largely complete would the shares be worth the current share price (plus say 0.5c for BMX).
Just my opinion - I don't hold IMP and did this analysis to see if I should. In my view - no.
Cheers
Monty
I might have been a bit harsh on operating costs - maybe more...
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