Shorter term I don't disagree with you MM. Of the 5 broker...

Shorter term I don't disagree with you MM. Of the 5 broker forecasts I collate, EBITDA estimates look ~7% too high for FY15. All TPI's organic revenue and earnings growth in the last two years has come from NZ. But with NZ being sold, I don't think analysts are sufficiently curtailing their revenue growth forecasts for a standalone Australian operation. Th Aussie business has a number of well known headwinds, unlike NZ which has a full tailwind supporting it at the moment. As such with the release of the FY14 result in August, or perhaps beforehand, it would not surprise me to see TPI talk down broker forecasts for FY15, which is never good for the share price. So, ultimately, I agree that there is no rush to buy.

But as an existing holder from much lower down, I will happily hold a debt free, dominant industry player, with decent organic and acquisition growth options over the next +3years in addition to significant capital management optionality.