I think you might have missed a number of key points.
Firtly, you can't look at gold hitting $1000 NZD in isolation. If the US/NZD exchange rate were to be 0.85/1, then you essentially have no change....of course, if you have $1000 NZD and still a 0.6/1 exchange rate - yes, that is a problem.
As for operating cash flow, I think you may need to check your definition of operating cash flow. Capital expenditures is not an operating cash flow item. An non-cash interest charges reduce your interest cost about $5 million. Also, exploration costs are an investing activity. So, your cash flow isn't conservative, it is calculated incorrectly, as it is not true operating cash flow. Metrics are are done on operating cash flow. Admittedly, my analysis was a little back of the napkin, but it is more
As for your analysis of adding $12.5 million in cash, after all development costs, I don't think even you realize how good that is for a $30-40 million CDN market cap stock. For this size of producer, it is something I have never seen analyzing mining companies.
And anyone buying gold stocks feels some semblance of strength over the next couple of years - if they didn't, they wouldn't buy - so not really a valid argument. You could have argued that leveraged producers pick up more on the upside of gold and are in more trouble on the downside.
As for the debt repayment, that will not be a problem based on cash flow strength (maybe even share price strength), and refinancing will likely be a lot different of an endeavour than it is in 2009 and 2010.
And yes, it does have risks, and key ones, but if it didn't, it would be a $4 stock right now.
Management is pretty solid - so just throwing out management so generically is misleading. They aren't fallable, but the fact they even got Dipidio approved is amazing. The hedges unfortunately are a necessarily evil for some mining companies when they wanted debt financing - it was that or dilutive equity financing. Nonetheless, Orr was a senior member of Barrick and oversaw a successful mid-tier in the past - so I think management for a sub $50 million market cap company is as good as you could hope for.
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