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"Is it good if its larger than Janssen. That deal has so far...

  1. 35,790 Posts.
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    "Is it good if its larger than Janssen. That deal has so far taken us down by around 60%. Dont think we can take another one like that."

    I don't really like to second guess the market as price always leads the way however firstly i wouldn't say the companys decline since the deal was reached is a reflection of the Janssen deal in itself but a combination of many factors as we are all too aware - registry shakeups with two of the largest holders exiting & mainly i would assume as a result of guidance slipped one too many times, both those holders exited with a sense of urgency for whatever reason & in each case the price fell steeply to reflect this - ironically AB out first & soaked up by NAOS then NAOS out & just dumped the weight ha.

    On the Janssen deal though i think really it's clear to anyone that can see even through the limited amount of information released it stands well above the rest & at the head of the pack for a few reasons. Sure the price has declined since it was reached but those few reasons still tap me as the market has read it wrong or simply doesn't quite understand it. Firstly it has provided 18 months of R&D funding aswell as the standard Technology access fee that all deals thus far have entered on. Secondly the option remains for Janseen to exponentially expand the size of the agreement & associated milestones, all deals to date are chasing 1 target Janssen has the option to branch to 10 targets & the associated milestone increase - while only 1 deal at this point theoretically you could view it as 10 of each of the pharma deals currently in the trunk if it gets wound out based on current milestone sizes that turns Janssen potentially into a $1B+ deal. Thirdly Janssen is not neccessarily looking to discover new drugs in themselves it's more a case of finding ways to deliver their drugs more effectively & to reach targets they haven't been able to reach - this means much less time to market if they prove succesfull ? ie. if they can transport drugs through the BBB by attaching a phylomer to the payload then they will inturn use that same construct for more than 1 drug ? = multiple royalty streams from 1 phylomer - an really not trying to get to carried away or speculative but that example would be a key trigger for Janssen to just aquire the company, they wont pay multiple royalty streams to a small company it just doesn't make business sense & they always look at the bigger picture..

    Anyway regardless back to the point i don't think another deal the size of or larger than Janssen is anything to be talking down - my punts with Novartis, Sanofi, GSK < in that order :-)
 
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