REX summary

Have been looking at REX and bought a few. From my research the following is of interest:

* They now own all their planes

* Little CAPEX required for years given they spent $56m last year

* Passenger numbers declining in a toxic airline industry

* Profit has been falling rapidly

* Excellent management

It would appear that REX would be in great shape if the conditions for the airline turned around. For this calender year it would appear that they should make a substantially increased profit:

* No carbon tax on fuel ($2.5m)

* A massive drop in the oil price of nearly 50% countered by around a 10% drop in the AUD

* $10m in savings by buying the last of the planes plus spares etc

A 40% fall in oil prices at $37.8m in fuel costs is a massive reduction in costs of nearly $10m (i'm not sure if the carbon tax on fuel is included in this figure). Plus the potential $10m in savings through LY's CAPEX - does anyone have a reference to where this potential saving was mentioned?

This does not include any benefits from increased routes and any pick up in passengers.

The share price has moved up of late but it appears to me that the market is underestimating the impact that the reduced fuel price in particular will have on profitability. Thoughts?