RFG 1.27% 7.8¢ retail food group limited

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  1. 99 Posts.
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    Your right I originally didn't run the numbers on the coffee division since Gloria Jean's Coffee was only acquired in H1FY2015 so they haven't really had the brand under their umbrella that long so its hard to get too much information at this stage however I have collated what I could so far. Note I have combined both the mobile/retail as these have now been combined as of the end of FY2017 in their reporting.

    Similar to their acquisition of Crust the brand seems to have had a lot of momentum on acquisition which is what you would expect from a business that has gone from 1 outlet in 1997 to close to 800 at the time they were acquired in 2014. However worryingly is that since that acquisition the number of closures has been picking up pace and it could be a similar situation to the pizza division where it is peaking a few years after its major acquisitions. Without international expansion it would seem that they would likely already be in decline as well given falling domestic network sales.

    The question is can they continue to roll out new franchisee's faster than they are closing down and management need to ask some serious questions about why they keep losing momentum and the churn starts increasing a few years after they have taken the brand under their wing.

    If they can address that problem then there is a really good underlying business there with good margins and sizable addressable market.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7
    1 Coffee Division H1FY15 FY15 H1FY16 FY16 H1FY17 FY17
    2 Store Count 1178 1228 1296 1341 1381 1386
    3 Outlets Opened 1038 1078 96 195 105 159
    4 Outlets Closed     28 82 65 114
    5 Net Growth 1038 1078 68 113 40 45
    6 Domestic Network Sales (m) (NWS) ? 241.5 124.8 246.3 121.1 239.1
    7 Gross Franchise Revenue (GFR) ? 36.9 24.6 51.5 26.3 58.1
    8 Franchise Fees Per Store ('000s) ? $30.0 $19.0 $38.4 $19.0 $41.9
    Last edited by grasshopper05: 12/12/17
 
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