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Blockchain small caps a better bet than bitcoin
Tim Lea, CEO of Reffind, which has bought a stake in loyalty scheme manager Loyyal.com. Picture: Chris Pavlich.
Just as the listed bitcoin sector emerged from the depths of the cyber haze at the end of last year, 2018 is shaping up as the year of the blockchain — the underlying technology supporting cryptocurrencies.
As with bitcoins et al, few investors outside of the rarefied tech head world really understand how blockchain — aka distributed ledger technology — works.
Suffice to say it’s a method of recording transactions securely not just in the one repository, but across the whole transaction chain.
As such, it has myriad uses unrelated to cryptocurrencies, which currently have little utility other than supporting criminal money movements.
Either that, or we’re all being subject to the same sort of con job the IT brigade inflicted on the world with the Y2K virus.
While down-and-out minnows continue to discover a sudden interest in bitcoins, blockchain fever is starting to engulf bourses here and elsewhere.
ASX stocks in need of an extra bounce have been quick to sniff the breeze. Last December, the HR play
Reffind (RFN, 3.8c) bought a stake in loyalty scheme manager Loyyal.com, which seeks to use blockchain for business process improvement.
Reffind’s change of tack is supported by the listed investment company
Chapmans (CHP, 1.7c), which invested $1 million in Reffind’s recent placement (thus making Chapmans Reffind’s biggest holder with a 9 per cent stake).
Insofar as it serves a use rather than being a speculative vehicle, investing in blockchain looks to be a more sustainable strategy than the go-for-broke punt on bitcoin.
Plenty of fortunes have been made on bitcoin’s spectacular appreciation, but the currency (or commodity) looks to have peaked. (It fell 50 per cent at the start of the new year before levelling off in recent days).
Also bear in mind that there are hundreds of other cryptocurrencies, so the supposed rarity of bitcoin can’t be equated with the rarity of gold.
It seems the more sensible plays are those that are adopting blockchain as an adjunct to their existing activities rather than as an unrelated sideline.
Take the logistics group
Yojee (YOJ,
26.5c), which has developed cloud software to automate and streamline the movement of goods.
For Yojee, the appeal of blockchain is that it creates an indisputable record of existence of a transaction and where the goods are in transit. This means payments can be made more quickly.
To date Yojee’s revenues ($62,000 in the September quarter) aren’t exactly commensurate with the company’s $180m market valuation.
But blockchain or not, Yojee gained momentum with a number of recent overseas contracts. These include deliveries for Scharff (which services Peru and Bolivia for FedEx) and a preferred software status for the Indonesian Logistics and Freight Forwarders Association. Backed by billionaire investor Alex Waislitz’s Thorney Investments with a 5 per cent holding, Yojee also looks cheap relative to the same but different
GetSwift (GSW, $2.85), which in early December signed a “global master services agreement” with Amazon.
While GetSwift said the number of likely deliveries it would handle on behalf of Amazon was “not determinable” the stock soared 120 per cent for a current market valuation of $286m. Elsewhere, the US centric payments house
Change Financial (CCA, $1.05, formerly known as ChimpChange) already uses a blockchain ledger for its core consumer banking business.
(As we’ve covered previously, Change provides a mobile-phone- based transaction service for under-banked millennials).
Now, Change is investing $US100, 000 as seed capital in a venture called the Ivy Project, which seeks to develop a blockchain-based cryptocurrency for transactions worth more than $US10, 000.
Meanwhile, the obscure
Ookami (OOK, 8.8c) is investing a tad under $1m for an 18 per cent stake in the private blockchain company Brontech, founded by blockchain guru Emma Poposka.
Described as a data marketplace and digital identification platform, Brontech is all about capturing financial data directly from users, thus allowing customers to capture the monetary value of their personal information.
Such data is the core of Experian’s business model, Brontech can be genuinely described as a disrupter. Ookami’s investment also comes ahead of the introduction of open banking, which will force banks to share customer data with third-party providers, potentially offering a better deal to these clients.
Once again, the technical aspects of blockchain’s role are hard to master, especially for investors shaking off holiday cobwebs.
But the Brontech deal, unveiled on December 11, was enough to send Ookami’s shares from 3.6c to a peak of 14c.
A comforting aspect of blockchain is that the $10.6 billion market cap
ASX Limited(ASX, $54.64) is adopting the technology to replace the ageing CHESS settlement system.
The decision came after two and a half years of testing and deliberation and we’ll presume the bourse’s blue-chip board hasn’t been hijacked by the technology boffins. Even The Perth Mint — which is no friend of cryptocurrencies — is mulling blockchain technology to improve the security and traceability of that traditional speculative commodity, gold.
As for the minnows, it will be months (or years) before it becomes clear who the blockchain winners are — and which ones are simply pulling the chain with investors.
It’s also possible that bitcoin and blockchain investors alike are ignoring the safest ‘‘crypto’’ exposure. A recent global report from Morgan Stanley claims that bitcoin mining — the process of creating the ‘‘coins’’ — is likely to guzzle 125 terawatts of electricity this year. Put in context, this enigmatic activity will use more power than the predicted demand for electricity vehicles in 2025.
Given that, energy utilities such as
Origin Energy (ORG, $9.05) and
AGL (AGL, $23.75) are shaping up as the real ‘‘crypto’’ winners
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