Hi
@RechercheSeeing as you asked so nicely, I thought I would take a look.
Note this is not a stock I have been following, holding, or had any interest in to date, other than the occasional glance.
From a purely TA perspective, looking at the monthly chart, it has clearly had a period of exponential share price growth post GFC and then stalled somewhat from around 2015 to date, trading rangebound between $60-80 over the past 8 years.
Looking at high level at the fundamentals, it is a private healthcare company - one would think largely recession proof to a point, though I would expect they are being impacted by rising rates and inflation like most sectors. I'm not clear if they are owner operators of the buildings they occupy or if they lease these, but either way costs will be going up whether borrowing or rents.
You asked me regarding the wave count on this one - i.e. Elliott Wave.
I typically trade elliott wave patterns on stocks I am invested in long term and are familiar with, and bullish on their medium to long term prospects. So I am biased towards upward movements and only trade these. I do not trade short, but I may at times identify short term bearish patterns and take some profits off the table to reinvest later. They are also almost exclusively companies related to batteries and the electrification thematic, so even if I do an appalling job of stock picking and trading, I am buoyed by the rising tide of that once in a generation industrial revolution taking place to some extent.
My timeframe is usually weeks to around 6 months for these trades, certainly not intraday, and occasionally I may enter and close trades within a few days.
So I am normally looking at hourly or daily charts for my patterns.
Looking at the daily chart of this for the past 5 years, not much jumps out at me initially in terms of upward or downward elliot wave impulse moves over this timeframe. That is not to say there aren't any (inevitably there always are) but they would likely be at a shorter or longer timeframe. I.e. on a monthly chart I would say it is possibly considering a wave 3 move - but that could be any time from now to 5 years away - i.e. the next upward growth spurt.
One a 1 minute chart there would be waves upon waves constantly, but I have no interest in those and will not try to spot them.
Looking at the most recent movements on the daily chart, since November there is something of interest:
There appears to be a fairly textbook bearish 3 drive pattern which formed with three progressively higher highs and symmetrical pullbacks between January and April.
For astute TA traders the third high in April should have been a sell trigger, and indeed the price crashed downwards immediately after this. Likely triggered I would say by AI bot traders which spotted this pattern and initiated large sell orders as well as aggressive shorting.
I say this with zero knowledge of the fundamentals of this company over the past 6 months, other than a quick glance at the financials which didn't look too bad - quite good actually, and not bad enough to warrant this rapid drop, so I would postulate this was near 100% a technically induced price movement.
I know I said I don't look at intraday stuff much, but on the hourly chart you can see the sharp decline in the past fortnight is clearly EOFY tax loss selling and I would expect this to see a rebound after June 30 - in fact today's gap up would suggest that is already in play.
Where to from here? You would need to put your FA hat on and do some thorough research on the company. I would say chart wise it looks oversold, likely as a reaction of bots and shorters pushing it down recently on the technicals. If the underlying fundamentals are strong and it is trading below the range it has been stuck in for nearly a decade, imo I would say it is quite likely to be a decent long term buy and hold at this price, and one I might consider for the super portfolio.
But this is is far from advice and as always DYOR.
(20min delay)