Richard Russell Comments, page-8

re: Richard Russell Comments - cocoa prices RR (U.S. version) wrote some weeks ago that he had never been good with timing (including his gold calls this year), which is hardly surprising given his focus on the very long term and fundamentals, like Warren B. Sometimes I wonder whether a few Prozac might be helpful. Still, he makes a good read for investors.

Cocoa was unloved a couple of years ago. In a move which perhaps would not have been allowed in the U.S., a user of the product bought up big time back then, eventually taking their holding in the world's stock of the product to at least 15%. This important commodity has since tripled in price

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CCZ2&v=dmax

http://www.futuresource.com/cfnews.asp?c=26&aid=57695&cid=4536&pd=

and the scandal mongers in the British press were having a field day two months ago about how high cocoa prices were and how it wasn't fair that someone could corner the market. As for how it would affect Starbucks and so forth ... not much in reality, although it will no doubt be used as an excuse by some to jack up prices. More of a worry is the drought in Australia, Canada etc and what it's doing to wool, wheat prices.

The cocoa stories two months ago in the British press in particular were a great beat up, for as you can see, cocoa is simply swinging from long term lows to highs and there was only one futures adviser I knew of two years ago who was "bravely" suggesting buying futures in cocoa. He was, of course, largely ignored.

Disclaimer: I don't own any related stocks or derivatives in any of the commodities mentioned, but think going short cocoa now would probably be a good trade.