I understand there are 102 caucus members so that's a few short.
However the raw numbers ignores how numbers people for Rudd, like Albanese, could sell him to nervous backbenchers.
For example:- this is Rudd's last shot at the title. If he misses out this time there's no reason to expect he wouldn't pull stumps and resign from parliament. Glasson would win that seat. McClelland is expected to go too, so we'd end up with an early election.
Or:- the polls clearly show Gillard cannot win. What possible harm can changing to Rudd do?
Mind you, I hope Gillard remains in situ. The best possible outcome for the Coalition.
What I agree with Richo about is this:- the numbers seem tight, either way. If it comes to a vote, neither will get a clear mandate from Caucus. So, turmoil and bitterness is almost guaranteed to continue.
There's one outcome that would be a sure-fire circuit breaker. Call an election, let us consign this nightmare to history. The ALP then will have 2,3,4 even 5 terms to trawl over their entrails.
