Regarding a potential takeover and the corresponding valuation by RIO TINTO, I would like to remind you of the following post, which referred to an interview with Sapan Ghai:Yes, this part was really very interesting because it dealt with the general valuation criteria in the various development phases of a company.
He said the following:
After publication of MRE - approx. 0.2 NPV
After publication of PFS - approx. 0.5-0.6 NPV
After publication of DFS - approx. 0.7-0.8
NPVStart of production - approx. 1x NPVHere is my roughly calculated valuation for Sovereign Metals based on the figures mentioned in the video and the optimized PFS:
Number of shares: approx. 647 millionNPV (real, before taxes) - approx. US$2.322 billionTax deductions cannot yet be fully factored into this calculation, as the remaining tax conditions or deductions have not yet been agreed upon by Malawi.
NPV (estimated after taxes) - approx. US$ 1.6 billionPrice based on PFS valuation with an estimated 0.5-0.6 NPV: approx. AUD 2.07-2.26
Price based on DFS valuation with an estimated 0.7-0.8 NPV: approx. AUD 2.90-3.33
Price after production starts, estimated 1x NPV: approx. AUD 4.14
Therefore, I stick to my opinion: The longer RIO TINTO hesitates with a takeover offer, the more expensive it will ultimately be for them – and, conversely, the more profitable it will be for us shareholders. However, as long as the tax framework and tax deductions with Malawi have not yet been finalized, RIO TINTO will certainly not make a takeover offer. Perhaps one should ask SVM whether there is an approximate timeline for when they expect the government to announce this still-needed information.
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Last
74.5¢ |
Change
0.020(2.76%) |
Mkt cap ! $478.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
74.0¢ | 76.5¢ | 72.5¢ | $548.6K | 739.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 13244 | 73.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
74.5¢ | 14264 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 13244 | 0.735 |
6 | 15382 | 0.730 |
6 | 26574 | 0.725 |
5 | 28859 | 0.720 |
4 | 15203 | 0.715 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.745 | 14264 | 5 |
0.750 | 49748 | 4 |
0.755 | 25396 | 2 |
0.760 | 16598 | 3 |
0.770 | 49860 | 4 |
Last trade - 15.52pm 18/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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