ride to $1, page-69

We have a lot happening all at the same time, to be honest.

• Stricter regulations are coming, though I don't think TABS SkyRacing will be hit with the scope of the ad bans; likely things are going to get watered down and channels dedicated to wagering activities and the industry itself, like SkyRacing, will imho be exempt at the end of it all.
• We have a new CEO who is less than 1 month in the job. While Adam Rytenskild left a mess for him and is trying to take legal action against TAB for his dismissal.
• Andrew Orbach, who is a Taylor Collison analyst, has been singing to the moon that he thinks TAB needs a second brand that is more modern to capture the youth. TAB could easily do this if they talk to Tom Rundle, who's publicly said hehappy for TAB to increase it's Dabble holdings (TAB already owns 20%). --- Have to hand it to Rundle; he seems to be killing it, and in the US with the no license needed loophole.
• BetStop (NSER) hit things hard for the online sector, 28,000 registrations since launch, 40% are perm exclusions (got no clue how cashed up some of or a lot of these had been, hard to measure true impact, but everyone's revenues dropped about the same when the system launched, looking though the public listed.) Though I do wonder if ACMA is double reporting the number here, people who come off it for, say, doing only a 3-month break, are they recorded as a new registration if they sign back up? Data might not be clean here.
• Gillon McLachlan the new CEO, said that FY25 targets took us for a ride basically. He's working on a new strategy, and we can hope at this stage that it's a realistic reflection of the market's conditions. We shouldn't expect a big return by December, he said as much when speaking to SMH in August. I tend to agree. I think we are oversold right and should see some gains by December. It really comes down to how much this election cycle kicks wagering in the nuts. The result might be weak for a bit, with a lot of people thinking the gains just aren't going to be material for 1-2 years, and @ShelbyDavis could be onto something. They don't need to cap-raise, and I would hate to see one, but if they intend to do a takeover of a second brand to get a more youthful online footprint and modern platform (which would make sense but also rather annoying because the App work that was done is all still new.),

Gillon does need to be careful; if we stay below the $1 billion market cap for too long, we are a takeover risk, and honestly, I would hate to see it. We have a strong position in the VIC license; I think the ads bans we will weather that storm better than most with SkyRacing, and if a tech fall of and youth branding perception issue is at play, make a call to Tom Rundle.