G'day pesaI generally agreed with your helpful analysis, but beg...

G'day pesa

I generally agreed with your helpful analysis, but beg to differ a bit in one detail as per my point 4. Anyway, here is my take on things.

1. I'm kinda shell-shocked by the apparent helplessness of watching/participating as this decade long dream seems to be inexorably slipping to a close without much of a whimper at the end?

2. I am afraid I agree that (in the absence of a very sizeable rabbit out of the hat in the next fortnight or thereabouts) the takeup of rights at 0.003 by current shareholders is probably going to be dismal. Even for the true believers, being asked to comeup with another $5K - $10K - $20K to match (double) their holdings in the face of mere last minute 'hope' is 'obviously' a bridge too far. But even then one thing that irks me bigtime is that if the takeup is dismal and some faceless big boys step in with the majority of the $6 mill - [in exchange for uncountable numbers of shares] then sheesh, man - I imagine (even IF major contracts somehow flow after the 6 mill)- there will be so much further dilution at this 1 minute to midnight, so to speak, that the average shareholder will be looking at only funding a decent Christmas BBQ while he bends down and listens to the missus hammering him that he was a complete dill years ago, and further she will assert he has kept proving it every year since. Spare me, oh Lord!

3. Tell me it won't come to this! The irony is that someone somewhere someday is OBVIOUSLY going to make a zillion with this tech - pity if that excludes the shareholders as we know them. I'm not attacking management over this - I believe they have given it their best shot, and hopefully are still working on it, maybe oiling some rabbit fur as we speak (please sir).

4. But on a more positive note - I think making up losses of the order of 100:1 will be relatively easy. If you are talking the current price at 0.003 - to have sustained a loss of 100:1 on the 'share price' would mean you bought in at 0.3 ie 30cents/share. IF that rabbit above actually arrived, IMHO the share price would easily (eventually) swallow 30c going forward. The problem I think you are talking about for long termers is that if they bought in at $1.68 then the real 'per share' loss to 0.003c is a whole different scale i.e. 56,000:1. What the... BUT that is not the way I would look at it at all, as those of us that also averaged down (repeatedly bought shares - into the millions- at close to these low prices), then our loss ratio in terms of the 'entire investment' over a decade comes right back to less than 20:1. ie very recoverable if only that damned rabbit arrives! Does this make sense? I'm saying it might have cost $250K to buy the first 150,000 shares in the good old days, but the next 5 million might have cost $25K. So if these 5.15M shares are worth $15K today at 0.003, that is an 'investment' loss of $275K/$15K = 18:1. Still a very unhappy investment loss, but in the special case of MST tech - IMHO a very recoverable situation even now - as the shares only need to reach say 5.4c to unbelievably recover the entire investment - not counting the next wave of dilution. Am I wrong?

5. I'm not trying to put a gloss on a shocking situation of current wealth loss. But irrespective of the whole investment 'example' of say 18:1 loss ratio - THAT DAMNED RABBIT STILL HAS TO ARRIVE, AND DAMNED QUICK? Otherwise, I am expecting I may not see myself having an opportunity to participate in a meaningful way? In other words, a shocking wealth loss will have been cemented after a long delay. This is NOT what my script said back in 2002.