i agree 67c was running a bit ahead, but imo it should be closer to 40c now
the report has many flaws
by far the biggest was the A$86m NPV they attributed to Rincon Salar. this is ridiculously low. clearly they have no idea how to do an NPV.
Lithium price = $US6000 per tonne
Gross cashflow margin = 75% = $US4500 per tonne
Full production = 17000 tonnes p.a
Total gross cashflow = $US76,500,000 p.a
Tax rate = 30% = $US22,950,000 p.a
Net cashflow to ady = $US53,550,000 p.a
Long run AUD/US exchange rate = 0.8
Net cashflow to ady in $AUS = $66,937,500 p.a
We all know Rincon is replenishing, so assume infinite mine life @ WACC of 15%. Assume full production achieved 2 years from now
So NPV of Rincon 2 years from now = 66,937,500/0.15
= $AUS446,250,000
Subtract capex (assume US110m = AUS137.5m)
Net NPV = $AUS308,750,000
NPV Rincon now = 308,750,000/1.15^2 = $AUS233,460,000. Compare this to State One's 86m
Assume 1bn shares on issue, gives current NPV per share of 23.3c
This is a conservative valuation that assumes long term lithium price of $US6000m and no ramp up of production.
Also it places no value on iron ore or potash cashflows
Given the very high lithium margins (75%), the real value of ady lies in ramping up production
IMO ady should be trading at about 40c now.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ADY
- rincon current valuation
rincon current valuation
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 2 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ADY (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
1.0¢ |
Change
-0.001(9.09%) |
Mkt cap ! $16.29M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.0¢ | 1.0¢ | 1.0¢ | $8.907K | 890.6K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 459640 | 1.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.1¢ | 266395 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 459640 | 0.010 |
4 | 691112 | 0.009 |
2 | 127500 | 0.008 |
5 | 975102 | 0.007 |
6 | 1400000 | 0.006 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.011 | 266395 | 1 |
0.012 | 318992 | 2 |
0.013 | 480000 | 3 |
0.014 | 200000 | 1 |
0.015 | 685117 | 2 |
Last trade - 15.45pm 08/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ADY (ASX) Chart |