Rincon still a test pilot plant, page-14

When did they make $120 million profit or where did they forecast such a huge profit?

If they were to make that level of profit then AGY is full valued at $600 million market cap.
It will take two or three years of production to take their share price to the next level.
Mining companies are always valued conservatively when in production the speculation element is at exploration.
Increase mine life or new discoveries often has more effect on share price than increased profits.

if the profit is certain surely they would have mining plans in development for the US now which has more political stability than Rincon.