AGY 4.76% 4.0¢ argosy minerals limited

Rincon -"Use it or lose it!", page-23

  1. 1,254 Posts.
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    Okay there is a sheet load of misinformation here and for the purpose of accuracy and discussing the FACTS, it is worthwhile clarifying the following.

    Enirgi's most recent Rincon DFS (released July 2016) for a 50Ktpa DXP plant came up with a Capex estimate of $720M USD and a total cash operating cost of $2,070 USD (for life of mine - 24.5 years).

    Screen Shot 2017-11-26 at 10.36.52 AM.png

    The detailed DFS info has been posted numerous time but for more info see:
    http://www.marketwired.com/press-re...asibility-study-salar-del-rincon-2140673.html

    It is worth noting that the economics have improved significantly since this DFS was published in mid 2016.

    Old mate Diamond Joe Quimby contributed to the 2016 DFS (incl. Roskill) who came up with a forecasted market price of $8,487 USD p/t.

    Screen Shot 2017-11-26 at 11.53.20 AM.png

    We now know that is an extremely conservative estimate on revenue…. if you bumped the revenue p/t up 50% to $12,730 USD you would get a NPV of $2.542B USD and a IRR of 55%

    The current DXP demo plant is a 'pilot' scale design developed & tested in conjunction with ANSTO here in Australia. In the second half of 2015 it was packed up and shipped from Sydney to Rincon to test the design 'at altitude' on site.

    LSCFig1SalardelRincon.jpg
    Enirgi Rincon site

    Being a privately owned entity, they don't have the same requirements that publicly listed companies have with regards to reporting on projects etc so given the lack of updates on the project it might be a bit pre-emptive to assume this means failure in grade/output production.

    As mentioned, their has recently been a few senior operational and executive personnel exiting the company so perhaps not everything is peaches and cream up the northern end of Rincon.

    Wayne Richardson has departed, vacating the position of President and CEO of Enirgi Group as well as a Director & Chairman of LSC Lithium.

    The other move earlier in September was Andy Robbs who was the VP South America and Project Director for Enirgi who has taken a role at Advantage Lithium / Orocobre.  (20/09/2017 Ann)

    Anyone aware of any other resignations /  appointments ??

    According to the LSC release on 15/11, no one is replacing Wayne, instead Stephen Dattels is taking over the role of Chairman… I do wonder if he is the new CEO appointment at Enirgi as well ?? Anyone able to confirm ?? Do we know where Wayne is heading to ??

    LSC announced the other day (23/11) that they have acquired the Mina Teresa tenement that AGY passed on…. No mention of what they paid for it but wishful thinking might lead a conspiracy theorist to believe it was one of those I'll scratch your back, you scratch mine scenario…

    In June 2016 at the Noosa Mining conference, I asked Richard Seville about the future potential of Salinas Grandes.   He was more interested in who was asking the question but his words were 'only as a bi-product of potash production could it be feasible'.

    FYI - most brine projects have a ratio of Li2co3 production to potash production around 1/10 so this doesn't mean it isn't viable, it is my understanding all current producing brine projects reduce their opex with 'potash credits'.

    Finally, I did see this recent Ann from Dajin who are in the same boat as LSC in that they are looking to Enirgi's DXP plant to process their brine (albeit their land looks ordinary - off the main salar/halite zone).

    It mentions that Dajin Director & COO was onsite recently and LSC and Enirgi are still in discussions regarding the use of the facilities to test LSC brine.

    http://dajin.ca/files/press-releases/2november-15-2017-lsc-dajin-argentina-corporate-updatefinal.pdf

    Make of it what you will but it still appears Enirgi are looking to find a way to fund expansion to full commercial scale…  Maybe they have realised there is more $$$ to be made via the conventional brine process but their asset, technical & exploratory works spend still has considerable value if they do look to offload it.  

    Just because they can't get the processing spot on at demo scale doesn't mean they are going to pack up shop and give up their rights to the asset given the current market climate for Li2Co3.

    @Onspeed did some calcs awhile ago before Mina Tincal was acquired but from memory he was thinking around 200kt of LCE from AGY's Rincon tenements.

    For S&G's,  let's say we are currently sitting on between 7-10% of Enirgi's "Measured and Indicative" resource of 3.5M tonnes of LCE.

    If our JORC estimate comes back with a ballpark resource around 250-350kt LCE, at 70% recovery we are good for a 15Ktpa plant with a 12-16 year life of mine and a ballpark MCap of $2.5-3B*

    *rough/optimistic calculations based on my excel numbers posted in fundamentals thread, being:
    USD18k revenue p/t,
    USD3.5k cost p/t (incl. potash credits)
    Assuming 1.3B shares on issue (let's say 400M new shares issued @ 50c for a 200M Capex requirement).

    Happy days

    Henry_Winkler_Fonz_290x400.jpg
    Last edited by BytheHorns: 26/11/17
 
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