Hi Nabott, It is common knowledge that any forecast is wrong...

Hi Nabott,

It is common knowledge that any forecast is wrong before the ink dries out. Even more so when the forecast is made by the promoter.

There are too many examples of this, including a few lithium companies.

By the way, it is not that the promoter is mischievous because this cognitive bias is a trait present in almost every human being.

You may find interesting a paper by Tversky and Kahneman, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131;
https://people.hss.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf
and a great book by Kahneman, D. (2011) “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” Penguin, ISBN 978-0-141-03357-0

Cassandra, quod nemo credivit