rio expects 50% fall in iron ore price , page-2

It's just more trash talk...

The price forecast is the 1M forward curve. Sept 2012, that 1M forward curve had IO prices at $50 in 2014... and hence why we had analysts shout out that IO was going to crash to $50 over the long term. It's not a projection based on rational analysis of the markets, the 1M forward curve is just banks shuffling bits of paper between each other, betting on what the price will be in Apr2013, May2013, Jun2013 and so on... you then develop a forward curve from this.

It's ridiculous to even suggest this represents RIO's opinion on the matter.

"Rio Tinto chief economist Vivek Tulpule on Monday presented a graph to investors forecasting a steady decline in the iron ore price to just above $US100 per tonne by September 2014.
Although the company on Monday did not elaborate further on the expected price movements,"

According to this, Vivek flashed a graph to the audience and didn't say much about it other than to say that this is a 1M forward curve of IO prices (which it is)... and then some journo comes along and makes it out that Vivek believes IO prices will slide to $100 by Sept 2014... but couldn't elaborate further on price movements? Oh Please, this is trash.