rio short term part 2, page-7

Geffa, Ridge, you are pretty much on the ball, these are the calls we have had running since about 1998. We are not expecting the long wave to bottom out till end 04 at the earliest. The whole Japan/US carry trade which has been pumping up the USD has to unwind first, with a deflationary crescendo

The bears as usual have a much more gloomy picture - they see a repeat of Japan in the US, with 10 years necessary to unwind all the economic distortions that built up in the 1990s. But I dont think they *are* going to fully unwind before the next major phase.