Let me road test some thoughts - and let me know whether they...

Let me road test some thoughts - and let me know whether they are complete bollocks....

I see that Bannerman gave an update on the Hanlong provisional bid a week ago.

They revealed that one of the conditions imposed on Hanlong by the China Development Bank was further due diligence to gain certainty regarding the timing and conditions of a mining licence for the Etango project, before financing commitments could be made.

This condition could be interpreted as China Development Bank being unsure of the mining license - and one view of that uncertainty could include sovereign risk fears.

I wonder whether there is a behind the scene standoff something along the following lines:
Namibia wants more control over mining revenues, so delays granting the mining licenses in the hope of taking a greater stake/return (largely without contributing to development costs, as actual money will be scarce).
Extract potential suitors want certainty over costs and revenues, so no bids will be finalised until final agreements are reached with Namibian government.
The parties at the negotiation table have not agreed because Namibian government is expecting too much - ergo no real bids yet.
Under this hypothetical scenario, each potential bidder must determine the purchase price that other holders will sell at - and also negotiate the Namibian governmental take.
The Namibian government plays each bidder off individually, with the promise of a mining license to their preferred winner.

If I was to put up finance of $1.6b, I would need certainty about the economics before investing, so I expect the mining license must come before the project finance is agreed or a takeover is committed to.

It is likely that granting of the mining license will lead immediately to an unconditional takeover IMHO.