All that is happening now: -The Chinese are diversifying mineral & energy inputs via its OBI (eg: sourcing alternative supplies out of Mongolia, Russia, Africa & the ex-USSR satelite states. -India is industrialising already ( Queensland has bought all its BCC City Trains from India)
Of course, my argument is that if we dont industrialise we'll be left behind;( a bigger version of Birdshit Island) when our premium iron ore, met coals & LNG runs out in 60 years.
The intelligent thing to do is to downstream process out iron ore, bauxite & base metals. diversify trade away from China (this takes time , capital & planning) so that we are economically (and by implication Politically) independant.
In Northern Queensland for example we have the potential to generate hydro power, smell "Green" aluminium into consumer goods & fetch a premium price in this valueable market niche.
Take for example Apple which is being pressurised to go Green with its aluminium iPhone & Mac Laptop aluminium housings . These casted/machined housings which have minimal labour input due to automation have a multiplier of at lease 50 to one above the price of the base aluminium ingot.
Civilisations have advanced from : Hunter gatherer to Agriculture to Industrialisation
And we seem to be stuck somewhere in the AG phase with mines & DSO being a colonial extension of that. This is why I am backing industrialisation or Perish!
We have all the raw materials under the sum We have a decent rule of law We have a well educated workforce We have FTA with many countries including Japan, Korea, Thailand, The USA & China to mention a few
So what are we waiting for......Foreigners to come in here and show us how its done and pocket the profits?
PS: A quick trade embargo against China would bankrupt Australia; (not to mention bankrupting BHP, RIO & FML) The best way is to do them slowly like making Aussie Iron Ore, Coking Coal & LNG more expensive by not refunding exporters to China GST input credits . This would "make hay while the sun shines" & provide Australia with the extra capital to build mega smelters, cast , Machine & diversify trade away from China over time.
I'm afraid shooting from the him would first shoot Autraila economically through the foot
China's OBI & Made in China 2025 are 10 year to 35 year economic plans which are designed to diversify China trade away from the USA (The OBI precludes the USA & its allies...Just look at the map- which excludes Aus) The USA realises this and because Uncle Sam cant keep pace with China economically, its only hope is to stymie China growth & if lucky bankrupt it.
This is wy we should be doung like China: That is making as much money out of China now so that we can afford to build our own manufacturing infrastructure, diversify trade away from China and be politically independant. Your suggestion above is that we swap economic dependance from China to India. We have done that before by swaping economic dependance on Japan to China! We have to learn to stand on our own feet mate!
