rising revenue and wide moats , page-5

Prime, the medical profession is very cautious and slow to change technologies, even in the event of a major breakthrough such as the new CST blood test for TB. It's been a long slog for CST to get through to all the various decision makers world wide however now we are seeing accelerating take up of the CST test as it is now recognised as far superior to the old, and increasingly discredited, skin test.

Yes I was surprised to see the very conservative senior executives of Cellestis now going on to the front foot with confident predictions of at least doubling sales for a number of years to come. These guys are not prone to exaggeration, they are scientists and like most scientists they are very careful with words. Most likely even their estimate of doubling sales each year will prove to be conservative, last 2 quarters have seen 25%+ quarter on quarter, keep that up and we will see sales much more than double year on year.

Money wise I really am a back of the envelope person.
I believe 60% gross profit margin will over time prove to be slightly conservative however let's use that and assume $12 million other expenses. For 2007/8 and 2008/9 prior tax losses will mean little, if any, tax will be paid.
Assuming at least a doubling of sales Y on Y (pretty conservative?)that would see sales for the financial year after next of at least $160 million, 60% gross profit gives $96 million, less $12million other expenses and then less tax at 30% gives $58 million or about 60cps, much the same calculation as everyone else. As you say what PE the market will apply is a real guessing game, between 20 and 30 is my cautious estimate however where do you find companies like this which can double sales and net profits year after year?

The promise inherent in the stock has been inevitable but slow to arrive, at a guess the market as a whole will not realise the potential till it sees the increasing black ink on the bottom line of the accounts.
Worth waiting for, there's a substantial block of long term shareholders controlling probably 50 to 60% of the stock, hard to see where stock will come from when demand increases, particularly after admission to the ASX 300.