Pokerface, I continually update my NPV of cash flow when THR...

  1. 4,030 Posts.
    Pokerface,

    I continually update my NPV of cash flow when THR releases fresh data; I discount at the rate of 12%pa.

    Assuming only a 10% further increase in ore reserves for Molyhil [a very conservative assumption], the NPV would be about $1.60 per share.

    But if we take the uranium seriously and allow for low grade ore in between the rich veins of uraninite and columbite at Daicos, a "safe "average grade would be about 2% U3O8. This would have a value in the ground of 2% X $A200,000 per tonne =$A4,000 per tonne. Now keep in mind the the SG of the rocks in that area is about 4, so we can count 4 X all the cubic metres that we estimate.

    Now if we assume area of 500 metres by 50 metres by 100m deep, we would have a 2,500,000 cubic metre resource; then X4 and we have 10 million tonnes. At 2% we would have 200,000 tonnes of U3O8 in the ground, with a value of $8 billion dollars.

    Less cost of extraction at less than 1 billion dollars and we have a very rough estimate of pre tax cash flow before discounts. But the NPV will blow your mind. Let me add before closing that only 0.25% U3O8 would be VERY profitable.

    Please check my maths; they look about correct to me after two glasses of wine. Regards, Conix.
 
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